American Idol 2009 - Why Adam Lambert Will Not Win

Why Won't Adam Lambert Win American Idol?
This years American Idol seems as if it will break the pattern of an every other year guy/girl winner. For the first time ever, there should be two male winners in two consecutive years. To this point in the season most people are making predictions that the Final Two contestants will be Adam Lambert and Danny Gokey. A few people have Kris Allen or Allison Iraheta mixed in there, but most have the first two gentlemen rounding out the finals. At this point in the competition a lot of people think that Adam Lambert will be this years champion. No I'm not completely going to rule Adam out but I do have a strong opinion that Danny Gokey will be this years champion, and here's why I think this.

Let me start by laying out the entire list of contestants that are remaining in the competition. After their name I am going to categorize their fan base.

• Anoop Desai - Conservative R&B fans
• Danny Gokey - Conservative Contemporary/Gospel fans
• Kris Allen - Conservative Contemporary/Christian Contemporary fans
• Lil Rounds - R&B/Soul fans
• Adam Lambert - Liberal Screamo/Twilight movie fans
• Matt Giraud - Bluesy/Soul fans
• Allison Iraheta - Rock/Pop fans

Looking at this list above I am gonna break down the rest of the competition starting with tonight's results show. In doing this I am going to predict where the fans of the fallen will go to place their votes. Tonight I am predicting that Lil Rounds and Matt Giraud will get voted off the island. Looking at the fans of Lil Rounds I cannot see them voting for Adam Lambert but can see them voting for the soulful Danny Gokey. Same thing with Matt Giraud. He may have some fans that will go to vote for Adam, but more that will vote for Danny's sometimes bluesy sound.

Next week, Anoop Desai will probably get voted off. Like Lil and Matt, I can see most of Anoop's fans jumping on the more conservative Danny Gokey's bandwagon. Two weeks from now will be either Kris Allen or Allison Iraheta. Because I believe that the producers will do whatever it takes to have one girl in the final three we'll say Kris gets voted off. Kris and Danny are both worship leaders at their churches back home. I can see almost all of Kris's fans jumping over to ride the wave with Danny Gokey's gang. That leaves us with a top 3 of Allison Iraheta, Adam Lambert, and Danny Gokey. Allison will come in third place and maybe pull a 50/50 split between her fans voting for Adam and Danny.

Moral of the story Adam is too far "out there" for the mainstream audience to adopt and waste their time voting for. Danny is the clean cut nice guy that people can't help but love. We've seen his life's story play out on the screen and it tugs at our heart strings. I don't think that Adam's fan base will grow very much from where it stands today. When you look at the voting spread in this sort of way, it's hard to see how Danny won't pull this off in the end.

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